August China NEV sales observations: moving on up and staying strong (for most)
It’s September 1 and Labor Day Weekend here in the U.S.
In the China NEV realm, we have officially entered the so-called “Golden September Silver October” season, and preliminary August data released by a slew of carmakers and brands (itself a mad scramble) today gave a preview of the season of harvesting with the mini mad dash in September in anticipation of the final mad dash toward the end of the year.
Here are some quick observations from the August data:
BYD: Sixth consecutive month of sales increase and second consecutive month of sales record to an all-time monthly record of over 370,000 units.
PHEV:BEV split was 60:40.
Dynasty & Ocean networks alone accounted for 96% of sales, remaining 4% from Denza, Fang Cheng Bao and Yang Wang.
To put this into perspective: as recent as 2015, BYD sold 380,000 vehicles (ICEV+NEV) in the entire year and China sold just over 330,000 NEVs TOTAL that year (BYD was about 62,000 units)
BYD’s officially communicated annual sales target for 2024 is 3.6 million NEVs, which means only 320,000/month needed the rest of the way, easy peasy. If they wanted to do 4 million, it would mean 420,000/month the rest of the way, much harder. But look for BYD to try every which way they can to get there. Sales likely will surpass 400,000 units in at least one of the remaining four months of this year, and full year sales will be closer to 4 million than 3.6 million.
There’s a chance that BYD could catch up to SAIC Motor, which has held the crown as China’s largest automaker group in terms of sales for 18 consecutive years since 2006. For both June and July, BYD sales were higher than SAIC Motor. That will certainly be the case in August and going forward. And BYD still has tons of new models yet to be launched (Song L EV, Seal 06 GT, Denza Z9GT/Z9, Xia, Tang L, Tang MAX, etc.)
The three key words that will define BYD this year are: 1) Bi You Di (cheaper than gas); 2) PHEV; and 3) DM-i.
SAIC Motor: overall in a funk as sales at almost everyone of its subsidiaries except IM are down this year. In danger of losing overall group vehicle sales crown to BYD. Recently had major executive shuffle among its key subsidiaries (SAIC-VW, SAIC-GM, SGMW, SAIC-PV).
Not shown on chart:
SAIC-VW ID.: 13,711 (much cheaper and the “price is right” ID.3 carrying the load)
IM: 6,117 (third consecutive month of 6K+)
Geely Auto: new monthly NEV sales record thanks to new records for Galaxy and LYNK & CO NEVs, ZEEKR back up after dip in July.
Key models to be launched in September:
ZEEKR 7X and LYNK & CO Z10
Not shown on chart:
Galaxy: 26,510
ZEEKR: 18,015
LYNK & CO: 16,767
Tesla (not shown): Likely in the 60,000–70,000 range, what has kept sales at a relatively strong level at least domestically is that 5-year zero-interest financing. No growth would be a win.
Li Auto: Dip in August from July all-time monthly record, but will likely top 50,000 in September given Q3 guidance. Rapid iteration and update of NOA capabilities including the upcoming E2E+VLM approach will drive sales. Third consecutive month with L6 sales >20K. Again my expectation is 520,000–540,000 for full year.
Chery: Also sixth consecutive month of sales increase and №1 in YoY growth among traditional automakers in the industry at 158.5%.
GAC AION: Every month this year sales have been about 5K-10K below their monthly rate last year.
HIMA (Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance): Facing some hiccups with AITO and losing out a bit on that direct competition with Li Auto. AITO sales of 31,216 units down 25% from July.
LeapMotor: All-time monthly record and first time hitting 30K, sixth consecutive month of sales increase and third consecutive month of setting sales record. C10 big driver.
GWM: No significant increase in sales over recent months flat at around 25K. Out of the traditional Chinese automakers (Geely, Chery, Chang’an, etc.), GWM faces the most headwind.
NIO: Four consecutive months of 20K+, more than half of cumulative sales being the ES6/EC6 priced >RMB300K is pretty significant. ONVO L60 will be huge boost in September and remainder of year. Expect NIO+ONVO to do at least 20K+ a month the rest of the way.
Deepal: All-time monthly record and topping 20K for the first time, every month this year has been a step up from the same previous months in 2023. Design+EREV worked wonders.
Xiaomi: Close to 60,000 units in about 5 months on the market with one single model SU7, 100,000 to be reached in November, 120,000 units full year not a stretch.
Xpeng: Sixth consecutive month of sales increase and with MONA M03 getting to its first full month of deliveries in September, expect all-time monthly sales record topping 20K (previous high was 20,115 in December 2023).
NETA: Like AION, sales have been a step down from 2023, more focus on overseas sales going forward. One of the smart EV startups I’m more worried about.
ARCFOX: New monthly record and for as long as they’ve been around, first time ever they get past 10K.
VOYAH: Fourth consecutive month of growth. New Dreamer and Zhiyin coming.
JIYUE: Special shout out to JIYUE as this was the first month they are showing monthly sales chart, finally consecutive months of four-digit sales numbers and especially considering it was only in the low 100s earlier in the year.
Combined NEV sales of these companies on chart is ~850,000.
Oh, and if you didn’t already know, NEV penetration will be well over 50% in August after hitting that milestone in July, and will remain way above 50% the rest of the way. There is no turning back from this latest tipping point.
Notable “Tesla killers” launching in September (in the RMB200K-300K range):
IM LS6
LYNK & CO Z10
ONVO L60
ZEEKR 7X
LUXEED R7
AVATR 07
JIYUE 07
