BYD, NADA, Polestar, EVE and Rivian: the 5 China factors in New York
I was in New York City last Wednesday for the 2024 New York International Auto Show.
It was my third straight year attending America’s oldest and largest attended auto show, not to be confused with it being the “largest auto show” because that honor has long belonged to the Beijing/Shanghai Auto Shows which alternate between even and odd years and come on the heels of New York. So, to me, it’s like a tune up to Beijing/Shanghai, what I would call an appetizer or breadbasket to the main course, which will be served up later this month in Beijing.
NY Auto Show does offer its share of global and regional model debuts, primarily geared toward the North American market. And since I live in Massachusetts, it’s close enough where I can drive down, check it out, and come back on the same day, so it’s a “can’t miss it” type of auto show in my backyard. It’s also an important event on the global auto show circuit since the annual World Car Awards including the World Car of the Year award are announced right before the show opens on media day.
For me personally, having covered China’s auto market for the past 25 years or so in various capacities, I always put on the China lens whenever I go to these type of auto shows outside China and look for the China factors even though there may not be any Chinese brands exhibiting (as is the case with New York). Yet every year that I’ve attended the NY Auto Show the last three years, the China factor, chatter or narrative always to seem to get stronger than the year before.
I got my money’s worth this year.
The first factor is BYD. Who else but BYD? It recently become synonymous with a new moniker: cheaper than gas (in Chinese it’s “Bi You Di” which I personally think is a funnier and coincidental take of the meaning of its corporate name/acronym officially known as “Build Your Dreams”), a slogan that it has used in the recent launches of a dozen or so cheaper priced NEVs in China.
Going into the NY Auto Show this year, the biggest headline was obviously not one, but two BYD models becoming a Top 3 finalist in the World Car Awards: the Seal for the World Car of the Year award along with the Kia EV9 and Volvo EX30, and the Dolphin for the World Urban Car of the Year award along with the Volvo EX30 and Lexus LBX. The fact that there were two Chinese models, and both EVs, in the running as a Top 3 finalist for the World Car Awards is already a historical achievement, and for either to win, especially the World Car of the Year, would be a shock to the world in the 20-year history of this award.
Unfortunately, neither did. The Kia EV9 took home the World Car of the Year as well as the World EV of the Year awards, while the Volvo EX30 won the World Urban Car of the Year award. A Korean brand has now won the World Car of the Year award for a record three years in a row, following the Hyundai IONIQ 5 in 2022 and IONIQ 6 in 2023. Three of the six World Car Awards, including the Hyundai IONIQ 5 N winning the World Performance Car of the Year award, belonged to Korean brands. Hyundai and Kia have just been unstoppable in the World Car Awards the last three years, and they’ve just been killing it in the North American market when it comes to vehicle designs and fresh, quality products that have translated to market success. It’s night and day versus their disastrous performance in China but that’s a discussion for another day.
The fact that BYD lost wasn’t all that surprising to be honest. My own expectation was that it was highly likely Kia would complete the “trifecta” for the Korean brands given their recent momentum and given the World Car Awards feel somewhat North American-centric, it would have taken a miracle for a BYD upset. One telltale sign that confirmed my hunch was, next to the stage where the awards was announced, a Kia EV9, a Volvo EX30 and a roll up banner of the BYD Seal, rather than the vehicle itself, were placed next to each other. As soon as I saw that, my heart was like: uh oh, this isn’t BYD’s year (at least not in terms of the World Car Awards).
But I’m certain the time for Chinese brands will come eventually and I’m certain many more Chinese brands and models will be in the running for World Car Awards in 2025 and beyond. The rise of China EV Inc. led by BYD is just a sign of things to come.
“The fact that you had Chinese brands showing in our Top 5, Top 10 shortlist, also in the Top 3 making it to that level, it tells you where the industry has come,” Siddharth Vinayak Patankar, Chair of World Car Awards, told me at the show. “With the EVs I think there is an opportunity but it’s not just the EVs, I don’t think we are very far away maybe from having the Chinese brands win.”
I met some folks from BYD America at the Awards show and frankly I didn’t think they were all that surprised that BYD did not win either award. I did tell them that they should pat themselves on the back that the Seal and Dolphin made it this far into the voting process, and that I remembered attending the F3DM launch back in December 2008 and writing about it for China Auto Review, and how far BYD has come since then.
The second factor was hearing Mike Stanton, president & CEO of National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) talk about the state of automotive dealers in the U.S. as they transition to sell EVs and the roadblocks the country still faces for EV adoption, during the Auto Industry EV Press Conference. The key message he gave was that the 6,000 or so American dealers love to sell any vehicle, ICEV or EV, they have roughly $6 billion worth of inventory on hand, and they’ve spent roughly $6 billion to get ready to sell and service EVs. Yet, the incentives are not sufficient, charging is not there, and affordability is an issue.
I couldn’t help but to think to myself: yeah, the only ones that will provide this affordability and mass market vehicles over the next 12–18 months are the China EV Inc., even with 100% tariffs! And you can’t really cut China off (think critical raw materials and battery cells) if you want affordability!
The third factor is Polestar, now with Geely as the primary shareholder following Volvo Cars’ recent decision to back out and focus on their own EV transition. Polestar chose to exhibit at the NY Auto Show for the first time ever and exhibited the Polestar 3 and 4 together in an auto show setting for the first time in North America, believe it or not (they were displayed at partner booths at CES 2024 back in January).
CEO Thomas Ingenlath used the occasion to announce the pricing of the long-range single motor version of the Polestar 4, which will be at $54,900 and begin deliveries in the U.S. in Q4. The model, produced at a Geely plant in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, went on sale in China last November at a cheaper starting price of RMB299,900 ($42,000) for the single-motor standard range version with the top trim dual motor long-range plus edition going for RMB399,900 ($56,000). The Polestar 3, on the other hand, began production earlier this year in Chengdu, Sichuan Province and deliveries in the U.S. will begin this quarter for four trims of the vehicle that will retail from $73,400 to $84,900 with all trims qualifying for the $7,500 clean vehicle incentive on lease transactions. So for now, both the 3 and the 4 on sale in the U.S., at least initially, will be made in China. Production of the 3 is slated to start in South Carolina this summer and the 4 in Korea with Renault Korea Motors and Geely in 2025 to augment the IRA requirement and avoid the 25% tariff currently levied on vehicles produced in China.
At their current prices and against the back of overall tempering demand on EVs and popularity of hybrids in the U.S., it is going to be quite difficult for the 3 and 4 to up sell.
The fourth factor, a surprise one at that, was EVE Energy. I didn’t know they were exhibiting until I saw an entourage of their people led by a senior VP who approached Ingenlath after the Polestar press conference to talk potential business. The Chinese battery cell manufacturer, which is building a plant in Hungary to supply cylindrical cells for BMW’s upcoming Neue-Klasse, chose to exhibit at a booth down in the basement level of the Jacob Javits Center next to the EV test track. Complete battery packs as well as cylindrical, prismatic and pouch cells of the LFP and NCM varieties were shown at their booth. I was told that this is their first time exhibiting their vehicle power battery cell and components in the U.S. aiming to get some market feedback, although I did see them exhibiting at the Battery Show last September in Novi exhibiting their industrial applications.
I’ll say it again, the Chinese are coming, in various ways, eventually, and despite the geopolitical headwind.
The fifth and last factor was Rivian and maybe a highlight of my NYC trip because I got to check out the R2 that was being shown at the Rivian NYC Space not too far down the road from the NY Auto Show. It was smart for Rivian to kind of piggyback off of the NY Auto Show and even though it did not exhibit. I signed up for one of the walk arounds that was done by one of the associates at the store that afternoon and learned quite a bit about the vehicle and its quirky features that are now unique to the Rivian brand. Honestly speaking I just fell in love with the vehicle and Rivian’s slogan of “keep the world adventurous forever” slogan. The R2 is the perfect-sized EV for American families, and I just wish there were more of these types of vehicles and Rivians for the American consumer. Too bad that there is a two-year wait for the R2 before deliveries start in 2026. I’m hearing that order intake is at about 70,000 units.
The China factor you ask? Well, Chinese battery cell supplier and Volkswagen-invested Gotion had inaugurated a $2 billion battery cell and pack plant last September in Manteno, Illinois that is expected to begin production later this year with an annual output capacity of 10 GWh of packs and 40 GWh of cells. Manteno is just up the road about a two-hour drive to the northeast of Normal, Illinois, where Rivian’s current manufacturing facility is based and where the R2 will be made.
When 2026 arrives, will we see the Rivian R2 with Gotion inside?
