Not all chip shortages are created equal: China “Big 5” smart EV startup August delivery recap
In my previous post, I said “by this time on September 1/2, I bet there will be another shuffle among the top 3.”
Lo and behold, that’s exactly what happened.
NETA (Hozon) leapt over NIO into the №3 spot behind Li Auto and Xpeng Motors in the rankings of China’s “Big 5” smart EV startups in terms of August deliveries, after NIO “shockingly” recorded yet another month over month drop in deliveries. “Only” 5,880 vehicles were delivered, down more than a quarter from those of July, which were off by 2 percent over those of June.
So instead of Li Auto, Xpeng, NIO in July, it was Li Auto, Xpeng, NETA in August.
Below is a quick recap of August and YTD deliveries for the “Big 5” as officially reported by each company on September 1 (listed in order of August delivery volume):
Li Auto: 9,433 (+9.8% MoM, +248% YoY); 48,176 YTD
Xpeng: 7,214 (-10.3% MoM, +172% YoY); 45,992 YTD
NETA: 6,613 (+10% MoM, +449% YoY); 33,728 YTD
NIO: 5,880 (-25.9% MoM, +48.3% YoY); 55,767 YTD
LeapMotor: 4,488 (+1.9% MoM, +720% YoY); 21,937 YTD
Despite dropping to №4 in August deliveries, NIO still led YTD deliveries, though that lead shrank from more than 11,000 units as of July to less than 7,600 as of August. Li Auto, with another record August tally, surpassed Xpeng into the runner-up position in YTD deliveries.
In terms of YoY delivery growths for August, the rankings is flipped: LeapMotor, NETA, Li Auto, Xpeng and NIO.
NIO was the only one among the “Big 5” to address the chip shortage problem in its news release on August delivery results, saying that “vehicle production, especially the manufacturing of the ES6 and EC6, was materially disrupted by supply chain constraints resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic in certain areas in China and Malaysia.” Reportedly, production at its sole supplier of A/B pillar interior panels for ES6/EC6 was halted for some time due to COVID-19, and the outbreak in Malaysia affected chip production at STMicroelectronics, a key supplier of Bosch for its ESPs, in turn affecting Bosch’s supply to NIO.
NIO also adjusted its Q3 delivery guidance to 22,500–23,500 vehicles, down 500–1,500 from its previous outlook of 23,000–25,000 vehicles announced on August 11. But the company did point out that new orders reached an all-time high in August.
Clearly, not all chip shortages are created equal.
Despite having just one model, Li Auto hit another monthly delivery record in August, reaching awfully close to that psychologically important milestone of 10,000 vehicles a month. NIO, and Xpeng to a lesser extent, all felt the brunt of the chip shortage issue.
Or so it seemed.
“I don’t think our situation is better than other competitors,” said Kevin Shen, president of Li Auto on the company’s Q2 earnings call just a couple of days ago. Maybe having just one model on the market was the exact “immunity” that Li Auto had from the chip shortage problem. All else being equal, it’s benefiting from less complexity with just a single, standardized model, for now.
With August done, September deliveries for NIO, Xpeng & Li Auto based on the high-ends of their latest delivery guidance for Q3 will be:
NIO: 9,689 (Q3: 22500–23500)
Xpeng: 7,246 (Q3: 21500–22500)
Li Auto: 7,978 (Q3: 25000–26000)
I’m certain September ranking will look different again, especially considering the “Golden September Silver October” period when numbers are supposed to look good.
So when October 1 arrives, there will be yet another shuffle in the top 3. My hunch is that NIO will rebound in a big way and get back into the top 3 if not №1.
